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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Bleed Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Mars
Marsoften banned
JG · 20 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Bombi · 15 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
JG · 10 games
80%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ken · 9 games
44%
Techies
Techiessignature
Bombi · 9 games
67%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Bombi · 9 games
78%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Bombi · 8 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ken · 8 games
38%

Bleed Esports

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Poloson · 10 games
50%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
JaCkky · 8 games
63%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
JaCkky · 7 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Poloson · 6 games
83%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
DJ · 6 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
DJ · 6 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mikoto · 6 games
50%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
JaCkky · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
450 picks · 678 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
419 picks · 195 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
395 picks · 545 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
394 picks · 425 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
352 picks · 583 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
347 picks · 170 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
339 picks · 642 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
332 picks · 845 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% Bleed Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total59% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:38
Neon Esports 55%Bleed Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 56:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerCije
50% · 193 games47% · 37 games
Chaos KnightJaCkky
Chaos Knight
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritKen
52% · 188 games53% · 69 games
InvokerEmo
Invoker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterJG
53% · 101 game53% · 278 games
Pangolierzeal
Pangolier
Rubick
RubickBombi
47% · 387 games49% · 260 games
TinyPoloson
Tiny
47% · 225 games
Crystal MaidenSe
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed18:35
Neon Esports 55%Bleed Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 42:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCije
50% · 193 games44% · 35 games
MeepoEmo
Meepo
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritKen
52% · 95 games54% · 159 games
WeaverJaCkky
Weaver
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerJG
54% · 268 games47% · 111 games
Beastmasterzeal
Beastmaster
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBombi
59% · 202 games42% · 263 games
RubickPoloson
Rubick
43% · 190 games
EnchantressSe
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 59%
Series resultBleed Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2