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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Lion
Lion
NARMAN · 20 games
55%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Tims · 18 games
61%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
Skem · 15 games
53%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Enryu · 14 games
79%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Unknown- · 14 games
64%
Mars
Marssignature
xiaoyu154 · 13 games
62%
Mirana
Mirana
Jaunuel · 13 games
46%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Yopaj · 12 games
75%

BOOM Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Fbz · 17 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Tims · 14 games
79%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 14 games
79%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 13 games
69%
Lion
Lionsignature
Khezcute · 12 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 12 games
58%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Palos · 11 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Skem · 11 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
285 picks · 429 bans
49%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
270 picks · 402 bans
43%
Monkey King
Monkey King
262 picks · 668 bans
60%
Bane
Bane
250 picks · 192 bans
58%
Weaver
Weaver
234 picks · 471 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
218 picks · 117 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
212 picks · 257 bans
46%
Lina
Lina
211 picks · 484 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 65%
Hero pool strength54% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total77% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:37
Neon Esports 32%BOOM Esports 68%
The model gave 68% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 26:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinPalos
44% · 121 game66% · 151 game
Templar AssassinTino-
Templar Assassin
Mars
MarsEnryu
46% · 369 games56% · 251 game
Ember SpiritYopaj
Ember Spirit
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMamangDaya
45% · 340 games51% · 298 games
PangolierFbz
Pangolier
Lion
LionNARMAN
44% · 312 games58% · 144 games
WeaverTims
Weaver
45% · 298 games
GrimstrokeSkem
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct19:25
Neon Esports 34%BOOM Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 36:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaPalos
36% · 39 games48% · 102 games
Templar AssassinYopaj
Templar Assassin
Lina
LinaMamangDaya
47% · 127 games52% · 57 games
LifestealerTino-
Lifestealer
Beastmaster
BeastmasterEnryu
59% · 47 games46% · 30 games
BrewmasterFbz
Brewmaster
Snapfire
SnapfireNARMAN
48% · 99 games57% · 54 games
WindrangerTims
Windranger
55% · 69 games
BaneSkem
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 77%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2