DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 1:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Carstenszloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Rubick
Hishge · 7 games
Puckoften banned
Ken · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
Dark Willow
PlayHard · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
FortuneSoul · 3 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Ken · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Hishge · 2 games
Carstensz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
257 picks · 436 bans
Phoenix
233 picks · 363 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Centaur Warrunner
218 picks · 285 bans
Tusk
210 picks · 196 bans
Dark Willow
209 picks · 99 bans
Treant Protector
189 picks · 359 bans
Kunkka
186 picks · 517 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Carstensz
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:10
Neon Esports 76%Carstensz 24%
The model gave 76% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 20:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 76%
Series resultNeon Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1