Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Drink Waterwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Snapfire
Se · 12 games
Chenoften banned
Se · 8 games
Earthshaker
PlayHard · 8 games
Shadow Shaman
ChuaN · 8 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 7 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 7 games
Clockwerk
ChuaN · 7 games
Enchantressoften banned
Se · 7 games
Drink Water
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
352 picks · 250 bans
Marci
316 picks · 556 bans
Undying
284 picks · 466 bans
Tusk
278 picks · 189 bans
Pangolier
248 picks · 426 bans
Primal Beast
237 picks · 509 bans
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 293 bans
Crystal Maiden
208 picks · 105 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% Drink Water
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Drink Water
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct3:28
Neon Esports 44%Drink Water 56%
The model gave 56% on Drink Water — the game was taken by Drink Water in 21:28.
Game 2prediction correct43:41
Neon Esports 44%Drink Water 56%
The model gave 56% on Drink Water — the game was taken by Drink Water in 49:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteDrink Water · 56%
Series resultDrink Water 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2