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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Execrationwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Puck
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 19 games
74%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 14 games
79%
Tusk
Tusk
PlayHard · 12 games
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 11 games
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 11 games
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Yopaj · 10 games
60%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Jaunuel · 10 games
70%
Mirana
Mirana
Skem · 10 games
50%

Execration

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 12 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
Rupido · 11 games
64%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
RR · 7 games
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Force · 6 games
67%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
RR · 6 games
83%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Yowe · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
RR · 5 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
423 picks · 950 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
388 picks · 546 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
354 picks · 707 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
330 picks · 564 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
312 picks · 301 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
295 picks · 212 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
283 picks · 284 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
269 picks · 147 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% Neon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:20
Neon Esports 56%Execration 44%
The model gave 56% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 43:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreNatsumi
60% · 19 games58% · 47 games
Wraith KingPalos
Wraith King
Sand King
Sand KingYopaj
35% · 40 games53% · 43 games
Death ProphetYowe
Death Prophet
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorSkem
42% · 8 games57% · 30 games
Centaur WarrunnerForce
Centaur Warrunner
Mirana
MiranaPlayHard
46% · 73 games49% · 33 games
OracleRR
Oracle
Warlock
WarlockJaunuel
55% · 13 games
Game 2prediction missed24:32
Neon Esports 57%Execration 43%
The model gave 57% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 36:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerNatsumi
50% · 14 games54% · 52 games
MorphlingPalos
Morphling
Sand King
Sand KingYopaj
45% · 30 games48% · 133 games
Void SpiritYowe
Void Spirit
Mirana
MiranaSkem
47% · 70 games43% · 117 games
TuskForce
Tusk
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritPlayHard
54% · 142 games49% · 8 games
Treant ProtectorRR
Treant Protector
Elder Titan
Elder TitanJaunuel
61% · 54 games
Game 3prediction missed26:32
Neon Esports 57%Execration 43%
The model gave 57% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 45:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterYopaj
57% · 44 games54% · 24 games
BristlebackYowe
Bristleback
Io
IoNatsumi
53% · 30 games40% · 57 games
MorphlingPalos
Morphling
Axe
AxeSkem
51% · 8 games32% · 28 games
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Tusk
TuskJaunuel
55% · 72 games55% · 45 games
Elder TitanRR
Elder Titan
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MagePlayHard
little data
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 64%
Series resultExecration 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3