Neon Esports vs Execration — prediction BIS · Dota 2

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BIX Invitationals Summer · BO2

result vs prediction

Neon Esportsloss 1:1

series probability

53%47%

probability at match start · final 1:1

Execrationloss 1:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Miranasignature

PlayHard · 24 games

63%

Nyx Assassinsignature

PlayHard · 21 game

62%

Pucksignature

Yopaj · 21 game

62%

Sand King

Yopaj · 19 games

58%

Tusk

PlayHard · 16 games

56%

Nature's Prophetoften banned

Skem · 14 games

50%

Pangoliersignature

PlayHard · 14 games

79%

Void Spiritoften banned

Yopaj · 13 games

46%

Execration

Void Spiritoften banned

Yowe · 15 games

47%

Marsoften banned

Force · 12 games

50%

Elder Titansignature

RR · 11 games

73%

Treant Protectorsignature

RR · 9 games

67%

Doomsignature

Force · 8 games

75%

Morphlingoften banned

Palos · 8 games

38%

Oracleoften banned

RR · 8 games

38%

Puckoften banned

Yowe · 8 games

38%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Lion

465 picks · 183 bans

51%

Snapfire

369 picks · 206 bans

50%

Mars

352 picks · 562 bans

49%

Puck

339 picks · 830 bans

49%

Ancient Apparition

316 picks · 465 bans

56%

Tiny

310 picks · 240 bans

51%

Nyx Assassin

308 picks · 604 bans

58%

Grimstroke

293 picks · 276 bans

50%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)52% vs 44%

Hero pool strength53% Neon Esports

Head-to-head1 – 2

Model total53% Neon Esports

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct50:33

Neon Esports 53%Execration 47%

The model gave 53% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 43:53.

Game 2prediction missed10:40

Neon Esports 53%Execration 47%

The model gave 53% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 29:47.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo