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BIX Invitationals Summer · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 24 games
63%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
PlayHard · 23 games
61%
Puck
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 22 games
64%
Sand King
Sand King
Yopaj · 19 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
Jaunuel · 17 games
59%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 14 games
79%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 13 games
46%

Execration

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 15 games
47%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Force · 13 games
54%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
RR · 11 games
73%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
RR · 11 games
64%
Doom
Doomsignature
Force · 9 games
78%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 9 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Yowe · 9 games
44%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
RR · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
456 picks · 179 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
346 picks · 193 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
342 picks · 542 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
318 picks · 806 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
317 picks · 479 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
313 picks · 614 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
294 picks · 233 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
283 picks · 362 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% Neon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total67% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct52:24
Neon Esports 61%Execration 39%
The model gave 61% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 29:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackSkem
49% · 54 games45% · 62 games
MagnusPalos
Magnus
Invoker
InvokerYopaj
62% · 77 games45% · 101 game
AxeLuciano
Axe
Dark Seer
Dark SeerEnryu
50% · 56 games48% · 217 games
PuckBob
Puck
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinTims
57% · 167 games52% · 133 games
EnchantressRR
Enchantress
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeJaunuel
43% · 159 games
Game 2prediction correct43:32
Neon Esports 58%Execration 42%
The model gave 58% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 39:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSkem
52% · 57 games47% · 50 games
MagnusPalos
Magnus
Invoker
InvokerYopaj
60% · 89 games48% · 116 games
LinaBob
Lina
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerEnryu
43% · 45 games49% · 248 games
MarsLuciano
Mars
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritJaunuel
44% · 129 games57% · 114 games
Ancient ApparitionRR
Ancient Apparition
Lion
LionTims
47% · 208 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 67%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2