ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Execrationwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 14 games
Rubicksignature
Hishge · 13 games
Morphlingsignature
FortuneSoul · 8 games
Void Spiritsignature
Ken · 8 games
Alchemistsignature
FortuneSoul · 6 games
Dark Willow
Hishge · 6 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ken · 6 games
Enchantresssignature
Hishge · 6 games
Execration
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 13 games
Underlordsignature
Tino- · 9 games
Doomoften banned
Tino- · 8 games
Dark Willow
Shanks · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
Bob · 7 games
Puckoften banned
Bob · 7 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
221 picks · 272 bans
Dark Willow
200 picks · 85 bans
Grimstroke
195 picks · 222 bans
Pangolier
185 picks · 395 bans
Sven
170 picks · 250 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 171 bans
Phoenix
167 picks · 225 bans
Earth Spirit
161 picks · 260 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:24
Neon Esports 47%Execration 53%
The model gave 53% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 31:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MagnusKen
LunaPalos
PhoenixRoddgeee
BrewmasterTino-
TuskPlayHard
KunkkaBob
48% · 67 games
PugnaShanks
46% · 112 games
Marcicml
Game 2prediction correct16:47
Neon Esports 47%Execration 53%
The model gave 53% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 41:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal BeastKen
Faceless VoidPalos
Dark WillowPlayHard
MagnusTino-
Ancient ApparitionRoddgeee
KunkkaBob
58% · 140 games
TuskShanks
48% · 62 games
Phoenixcml
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 56%
Series resultExecration 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2