OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO2
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
iG Vitalityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 28 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
PlayHard · 28 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 23 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 21 game
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 19 games
Tusk
Jaunuel · 19 games
Leshracsignature
Enryu · 16 games
Lion
Jaunuel · 15 games
iG Vitality
Clinkzoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
ukiyo · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Windranger
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
ukiyo · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
370 picks · 172 bans
Hoodwink
347 picks · 123 bans
Lina
266 picks · 451 bans
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 523 bans
Luna
249 picks · 345 bans
Mars
238 picks · 410 bans
Winter Wyvern
238 picks · 245 bans
Dragon Knight
236 picks · 329 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 22%
Hero pool strength57% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 83%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect