Khaz Modan Cup Season 2 · BO2
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Mist Walkerloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Tidehunteroften banned
Enryu · 12 games
Lionsignature
NARMAN · 11 games
Mirana
NARMAN · 11 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Karma丶 · 11 games
Weaveroften banned
Jing · 11 games
Beastmastersignature
Enryu · 9 games
Kunkkaoften banned
MamangDaya · 9 games
Queen of Painsignature
MamangDaya · 8 games
Mist Walker
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
483 picks · 451 bans
Mars
481 picks · 672 bans
Bane
458 picks · 279 bans
Dragon Knight
422 picks · 499 bans
Sand King
415 picks · 568 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 654 bans
Pangolier
373 picks · 579 bans
Grimstroke
353 picks · 302 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)15% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:17
Neon Esports 59%Mist Walker 41%
The model gave 59% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 38:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierEnryu
Void SpiritXy
MiranaChuaN
SnapfireSe
Game 2prediction correct16:47
Neon Esports 65%Mist Walker 35%
The model gave 65% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 35:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 65%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2