BIX Invitationals Summer · BO2
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 1:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:1
MCMoon Chasersloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 24 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
PlayHard · 22 games
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 21 game
Sand King
Yopaj · 20 games
Tusk
Jaunuel · 16 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 14 games
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 14 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 13 games
Moon Chasers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
461 picks · 181 bans
Snapfire
364 picks · 204 bans
Mars
350 picks · 559 bans
Puck
333 picks · 823 bans
Ancient Apparition
316 picks · 471 bans
Nyx Assassin
310 picks · 604 bans
Tiny
305 picks · 242 bans
Enchantress
285 picks · 362 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 33%
Hero pool strength54% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:30
Neon Esports 60%Moon Chasers 40%
The model gave 60% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Moon Chasers in 32:35.
Game 2prediction correct46:16
Neon Esports 60%Moon Chasers 40%
The model gave 60% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 26:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2