BTS Pro Series Season 10. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 1:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Motivate.Trust Gamingloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Tidehuntersignature
Enryu · 22 games
Lionsignature
NARMAN · 20 games
Marssignature
Enryu · 20 games
Kunkkaoften banned
MamangDaya · 15 games
Queen of Painsignature
Mikoto · 15 games
Gyrocopter
Unknown- · 13 games
Mirana
NARMAN · 12 games
Weaveroften banned
NARMAN · 12 games
Motivate.Trust Gaming
Lion
boombell · 21 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 14 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Q · 10 games
Gyrocoptersignature
JaCkky · 9 games
Medusaoften banned
JaCkky · 9 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
JaCkky · 9 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 8 games
Linaoften banned
Fearless · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
544 picks · 374 bans
Queen of Pain
478 picks · 571 bans
Mars
447 picks · 606 bans
Weaver
429 picks · 784 bans
Snapfire
363 picks · 171 bans
Spirit Breaker
344 picks · 572 bans
Kunkka
342 picks · 544 bans
Wraith King
284 picks · 345 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 21%
Hero pool strength54% Neon Esports
Head-to-head6 – 2
Model total67% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:9
Neon Esports 60%Motivate.Trust Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 31:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerKarma丶
BroodmotherFearless
LycanEnryu
Outworld Destroyerboombell
WeaverJing
Game 2prediction missed7:19
Neon Esports 56%Motivate.Trust Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 24:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingKarma丶
LeshracFearless
PangolierEnryu
Rubickboombell
WeaverJing
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 67%
Accuracy by game1 of 2