Neon Esports vs Omega Esports — prediction DPC2S—ЗК 1 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Neon Esportswin 2:0

series probability

50%50%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Omega Esportsloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

No games played over 6 months.

Omega Esports

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Anti-Mage

2 picks · 1 bans

33%

Brewmaster

2 picks · 0 bans

67%

Earth Spirit

2 picks · 0 bans

50%

Abaddon

1 picks · 0 bans

40%

Ancient Apparition

1 picks · 0 bans

60%

Arc Warden

1 picks · 3 bans

60%

Chaos Knight

1 picks · 0 bans

40%

Crystal Maiden

1 picks · 0 bans

60%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% Neon Esports

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total50% Neon Esports

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed38:26

Neon Esports 49%Omega Esports 51%

The model gave 51% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 41:17.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo