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BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Polaris Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 30 games
63%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
PlayHard · 28 games
61%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 23 games
57%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 21 game
52%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 20 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Jaunuel · 19 games
47%
Lion
Lion
Jaunuel · 18 games
56%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Deth · 17 games
59%

Polaris Esports

Lion
Lion
cml · 5 games
60%
Mirana
Mirana
Boomy · 4 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Force · 4 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
cml · 3 games
0%
Bane
Bane
cml · 3 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Natsumi · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mac · 3 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
364 picks · 179 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
331 picks · 121 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
271 picks · 501 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
260 picks · 431 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
253 picks · 340 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
251 picks · 338 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
239 picks · 512 bans
55%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
230 picks · 481 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 31%
Hero pool strength52% Neon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:24
Neon Esports 61%Polaris Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 45:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterUnknown-
49% · 92 games49% · 63 games
LifestealerNatsumi
Lifestealer
Kunkka
KunkkaMikoto
43% · 52 games50% · 127 games
Death ProphetMac
Death Prophet
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeNARMAN
49% · 191 game49% · 159 games
TidehunterForce
Tidehunter
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderxiaoyu154
51% · 45 games56% · 166 games
PangolierBoomy
Pangolier
Mirana
MiranaJaunuel
54% · 143 games35% · 8 games
Silencercml
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct39:20
Neon Esports 60%Polaris Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 38:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterUnknown-
50% · 105 games52% · 118 games
Faceless VoidNatsumi
Faceless Void
Batrider
BatriderMikoto
51% · 68 games48% · 207 games
TinyMac
Tiny
Mars
Marsxiaoyu154
46% · 194 games54% · 101 game
MagnusForce
Magnus
Lion
LionNARMAN
48% · 213 games56% · 216 games
SnapfireBoomy
Snapfire
Elder Titan
Elder TitanJaunuel
51% · 93 games38% · 31 game
Silencercml
Silencer
Game 3prediction missed20:30
Neon Esports 60%Polaris Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 38:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaUnknown-
45% · 49 games51% · 75 games
LifestealerNatsumi
Lifestealer
Windranger
WindrangerMikoto
50% · 36 games51% · 160 games
Death ProphetMac
Death Prophet
Tidehunter
Tidehunterxiaoyu154
49% · 86 games56% · 80 games
DoomForce
Doom
Lion
LionNARMAN
50% · 139 games60% · 37 games
Vengeful SpiritBoomy
Vengeful Spirit
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterJaunuel
43% · 54 games37% · 12 games
Lichcml
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 67%
Series resultPolaris Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3