OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 0:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ragdollwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 29 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
PlayHard · 28 games
Nature's Prophet
Skem · 21 game
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 21 game
Lion
Jaunuel · 20 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Unknown- · 18 games
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 16 games
Leshracoften banned
Skem · 15 games
Ragdoll
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
347 picks · 179 bans
Hoodwink
287 picks · 105 bans
Mars
272 picks · 418 bans
Lina
268 picks · 534 bans
Pangolier
264 picks · 365 bans
Luna
238 picks · 337 bans
Shadow Demon
234 picks · 245 bans
Nyx Assassin
218 picks · 465 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 38%
Hero pool strength54% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total70% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 70%
Series resultRagdoll 0:2
Series predictionmissed