Elite League. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 1:2series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Salvation Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Marsoften banned
JG · 13 games
Hoodwink
Bombi · 8 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Bombi · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ken · 7 games
Techiessignature
Bombi · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 6 games
Magnusoften banned
JG · 6 games
Puckoften banned
Ken · 6 games
Salvation Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
374 picks · 346 bans
Vengeful Spirit
335 picks · 322 bans
Centaur Warrunner
329 picks · 497 bans
Mars
303 picks · 427 bans
Techies
286 picks · 210 bans
Hoodwink
280 picks · 158 bans
Pangolier
275 picks · 419 bans
Batrider
270 picks · 497 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:28
Neon Esports 81%Salvation Gaming 19%
The model gave 81% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 28:59.
Game 2prediction missed38:18
Neon Esports 81%Salvation Gaming 19%
The model gave 81% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Salvation Gaming in 43:40.
Game 3prediction missed35:31
Neon Esports 81%Salvation Gaming 19%
The model gave 81% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Salvation Gaming in 52:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 81%
Series resultSalvation Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3