Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 1:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
T1win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 22 games
Mirana
PlayHard · 14 games
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 14 games
Tusk
PlayHard · 13 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 12 games
Elder Titansignature
Jaunuel · 11 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 11 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
PlayHard · 11 games
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
394 picks · 1012 bans
Mars
373 picks · 599 bans
Grimstroke
361 picks · 364 bans
Lion
360 picks · 189 bans
Void Spirit
320 picks · 508 bans
Death Prophet
314 picks · 682 bans
Tusk
308 picks · 227 bans
Snapfire
256 picks · 143 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 47%
Hero pool strength56% Neon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:11
Neon Esports 58%T1 42%
The model gave 58% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 42:12.
Game 2prediction missed28:34
Neon Esports 58%T1 42%
The model gave 58% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by T1 in 51:11.
Game 3prediction missed27:31
Neon Esports 58%T1 42%
The model gave 58% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by T1 in 49:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 58%
Series resultT1 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3