ONE Esports Singapore Major 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 1:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Asterloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 9 games
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 8 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Natsumi · 8 games
Elder Titansignature
Jaunuel · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Skem · 7 games
Mirana
Skem · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Skem · 6 games
Tusksignature
PlayHard · 6 games
Team Aster
Gyrocoptersignature
LaNm · 11 games
Pucksignature
White丶Album · 11 games
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 10 games
Marssignature
Xxs · 10 games
Queen of Painsignature
White丶Album · 9 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Monet · 8 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
LaNm · 8 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Monet · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
426 picks · 975 bans
Void Spirit
402 picks · 593 bans
Mars
351 picks · 634 bans
Earth Spirit
313 picks · 271 bans
Death Prophet
310 picks · 615 bans
Rubick
259 picks · 174 bans
Wraith King
253 picks · 420 bans
Phoenix
252 picks · 354 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 70%
Hero pool strength52% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:15
Neon Esports 51%Team Aster 49%
The model gave 51% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 43:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
IoSkem
Anti-MageMonet
Death ProphetYopaj
Queen of PainWhite丶Album
PangolierRapy
BloodseekerXxs
RubickPlayHard
AbaddonLaNm
ClockwerkJaunuel
Game 2prediction correct14:25
Neon Esports 48%Team Aster 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 33:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaSkem
Monkey KingMonet
MarsYopaj
Queen of PainWhite丶Album
Sand KingRapy
BatriderXxs
MiranaPlayHard
Treant ProtectorLaNm
OmniknightJaunuel
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 50%
Accuracy by game2 of 2