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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esports
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start
Team Tough
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Hated · 8 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 5 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Hated · 5 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 4 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
FortuneSoul · 4 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ken · 3 games
0%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 3 games
67%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Enryu · 3 games
67%

Team Tough

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
seimei · 8 games
25%
Doom
Doomoften banned
seimei · 7 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
seimei · 3 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
eleven · 3 games
0%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
seimei · 2 games
0%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
seimei · 2 games
100%
Riki
Rikioften banned
seimei · 2 games
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
seimei · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
736 picks · 616 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
556 picks · 484 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
429 picks · 1042 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
407 picks · 677 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
406 picks · 988 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
398 picks · 374 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
393 picks · 610 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
384 picks · 206 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 64%