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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TNC Predatorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Mars
Marsoften banned
JG · 20 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Bombi · 15 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
JG · 11 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ken · 11 games
36%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ken · 11 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 10 games
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Bombi · 10 games
70%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
Bombi · 9 games
44%

TNC Predator

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Mjz · 26 games
69%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Palos · 18 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 18 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gabbi · 17 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Gabbi · 16 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Gabbi · 16 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Abed · 16 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Mjz · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
420 picks · 607 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
369 picks · 387 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
364 picks · 140 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
356 picks · 467 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
321 picks · 346 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
316 picks · 580 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
312 picks · 632 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
311 picks · 162 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 72%
Hero pool strength57% TNC Predator
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% TNC Predator
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:36
Neon Esports 38%TNC Predator 62%
The model gave 62% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 48:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerCije
54% · 169 games63% · 56 games
Troll WarlordPalos
Troll Warlord
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritKen
47% · 131 game46% · 66 games
ZeusYowe
Zeus
Enigma
EnigmaJG
57% · 109 games50% · 235 games
RubickJing
Rubick
Tusk
Tuskdalul
40% · 96 games47% · 148 games
Crystal MaidenKuku
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct12:26
Neon Esports 39%TNC Predator 61%
The model gave 61% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 40:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritKen
54% · 154 games46% · 214 games
GyrocopterPalos
Gyrocopter
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidCije
60% · 175 games43% · 70 games
ZeusYowe
Zeus
Brewmaster
BrewmasterJG
50% · 177 games48% · 313 games
TinyJing
Tiny
Rubick
Rubickdalul
49% · 350 games49% · 259 games
Crystal MaidenKuku
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC Predator · 68%
Series resultTNC Predator 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2