2022 Asian Games · BO3
result vs prediction
Непалloss 0:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Кыргызстанwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Непал
No games played over 6 months.
Кыргызстан
Pangolieroften banned
Askold · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
Lich
Max · 4 games
Warlock
Max · 4 games
Doomoften banned
Zayac · 3 games
Slarkoften banned
Kami · 3 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Max · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Blizzy · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
298 picks · 150 bans
Pangolier
210 picks · 409 bans
Ember Spirit
205 picks · 273 bans
Beastmaster
191 picks · 385 bans
Skywrath Mage
184 picks · 109 bans
Dark Seer
183 picks · 348 bans
Storm Spirit
176 picks · 264 bans
Vengeful Spirit
175 picks · 251 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 59%
Hero pool strength52% Кыргызстан
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Кыргызстан
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Непал 29%Кыргызстан 71%
The model gave 71% on Кыргызстан — the game was taken by Кыргызстан.
Game 2prediction correct
Непал 29%Кыргызстан 71%
The model gave 71% on Кыргызстан — the game was taken by Кыргызстан.
Model check result
Model favoriteКыргызстан · 71%
Series resultКыргызстан 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2