Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs predictionNNGID.M11loss 0:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MYM Ywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NGID.M11
No games played over 6 months.
M Y
Lycanoften banned
KNP · 4 games
Tidehunteroften banned
LionaX · 4 games
Bane
LionaX · 3 games
Elder Titan
MyPro · 3 games
Linaoften banned
Beebie · 3 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Beebie · 3 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Beebie · 3 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
KNP · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
505 picks · 348 bans
Queen of Pain
450 picks · 563 bans
Weaver
408 picks · 638 bans
Mars
400 picks · 568 bans
Kunkka
329 picks · 530 bans
Spirit Breaker
313 picks · 558 bans
Snapfire
294 picks · 139 bans
Wraith King
272 picks · 359 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% NGID.M11
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% M Y
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteM Y · 53%
Series resultM Y 0:2
Series predictioncorrect