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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Night Pulseloss 0:2
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Night Pulse

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kidaro · 21 game
76%
Muerta
Muerta
dEsire · 19 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Worick · 18 games
72%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 16 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Kami · 15 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Worick · 15 games
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 14 games
71%
Lich
Lichsignature
Kidaro · 13 games
69%

1w Team

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 20 games
35%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fishman · 20 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
55%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 18 games
61%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 18 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Munkushi~ · 16 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 16 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
502 picks · 691 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
432 picks · 697 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
417 picks · 405 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
414 picks · 317 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
372 picks · 968 bans
58%
Bristleback
Bristleback
369 picks · 861 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
365 picks · 502 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
362 picks · 422 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 53%
Hero pool strength57% Night Pulse
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total83% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:50
Night Pulse 70%1w Team 30%
The model gave 70% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by 1w Team in 39:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetKami
53% · 109 games52% · 412 games
TinyMunkushi~
Tiny
Bristleback
BristlebackDavai
52% · 252 games61% · 142 games
Dark SeerSSS
Dark Seer
Pangolier
PangolierWorick
45% · 499 games43% · 302 games
BeastmasterChira JUNIOR
Beastmaster
Muerta
MuertaOneJey
49% · 313 games48% · 322 games
Tuskswedenstrong
Tusk
Silencer
SilencerKidaro
44% · 43 games53% · 38 games
Ancient ApparitionHduo
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed13:40
Night Pulse 68%1w Team 32%
The model gave 68% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by 1w Team in 32:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenKami
49% · 214 games53% · 261 game
TinyMunkushi~
Tiny
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetWorick
48% · 116 games62% · 115 games
Dark SeerSSS
Dark Seer
Bristleback
BristlebackDavai
46% · 217 games54% · 86 games
SlardarChira JUNIOR
Slardar
Dark Willow
Dark WillowOneJey
41% · 248 games52% · 154 games
JakiroHduo
Jakiro
Silencer
SilencerKidaro
47% · 56 games49% · 235 games
Tuskswedenstrong
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 83%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2