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Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
Night Pulsewin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dragon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Night Pulse

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 15 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 14 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
JANTER · 9 games
78%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Corrupted · 8 games
25%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
JANTER · 8 games
63%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Kami · 8 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 8 games
63%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 7 games
57%

Dragon Esports

Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
paw · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 5 games
40%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 3 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 3 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
dualrazee · 3 games
33%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
dualrazee · 2 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
419 picks · 630 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
377 picks · 395 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
367 picks · 479 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
365 picks · 153 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
322 picks · 588 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
321 picks · 695 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
320 picks · 154 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
317 picks · 461 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 41%
Hero pool strength55% Night Pulse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:36
Night Pulse 68%Dragon Esports 32%
The model gave 68% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 48:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerV-Tune
46% · 48 games53% · 45 games
Shadow Fienddualrazee
Shadow Fiend
Windranger
WindrangerWorick
62% · 56 games47% · 194 games
Morphlingpaw
Morphling
Beastmaster
BeastmasterKami
46% · 74 games54% · 135 games
Dark SeerNorma
Dark Seer
Dark Willow
Dark WillowJANTER
43% · 92 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkHduo
50% · 104 games
Game 2prediction correct38:16
Night Pulse 67%Dragon Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 22:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerV-Tune
54% · 63 games51% · 86 games
Windrangerpaw
Windranger
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinWorick
55% · 150 games49% · 136 games
Storm Spiritdualrazee
Storm Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerKami
47% · 109 games48% · 297 games
PangolierNorma
Pangolier
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerJANTER
50% · 65 games
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeHduo
48% · 132 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 81%
Series resultNight Pulse 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2