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The Portal Dota 2 World Invitationals · BO3
result vs prediction
Night Pulseloss 1:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HULIGANIwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Night Pulse

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 13 games
54%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 7 games
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Corrupted · 6 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
JANTER · 5 games
80%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 5 games
40%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Kami · 5 games
40%
Techies
Techies
JANTER · 5 games
20%

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 15 games
40%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 14 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 12 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OneJey · 11 games
36%
Techies
Techies
OneJey · 11 games
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OneJey · 9 games
56%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Bb3px · 9 games
56%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Panto · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
472 picks · 762 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
438 picks · 705 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
435 picks · 347 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
430 picks · 905 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
429 picks · 566 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
409 picks · 184 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
398 picks · 194 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Night Pulse
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total52% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:29
Night Pulse 51%HULIGANI 49%
The model gave 51% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 45:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperWorick
50% · 30 games44% · 172 games
Morphlingv1olent-
Morphling
Slark
SlarkKami
52% · 168 games49% · 135 games
Dragon Knightre1bl
Dragon Knight
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCorrupted
51% · 354 games51% · 122 games
MarsBb3px
Mars
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenJANTER
56% · 297 games49% · 124 games
ClockwerkPanto
Clockwerk
45% · 296 games
RubickOneJey
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct20:28
Night Pulse 48%HULIGANI 52%
The model gave 52% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 39:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeKami
54% · 216 games51% · 189 games
Lunav1olent-
Luna
Pangolier
PangolierWorick
46% · 270 games51% · 265 games
Storm Spiritre1bl
Storm Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
50% · 230 games50% · 207 games
Dragon KnightBb3px
Dragon Knight
Enchantress
EnchantressJANTER
49% · 228 games47% · 156 games
GyrocopterOneJey
Gyrocopter
53% · 127 games
Treant ProtectorPanto
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction correct14:31
Night Pulse 49%HULIGANI 51%
The model gave 51% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 40:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaKami
43% · 69 games59% · 73 games
Leshracre1bl
Leshrac
Puck
PuckWorick
49% · 133 games54% · 75 games
Lifestealerv1olent-
Lifestealer
Tidehunter
TidehunterCorrupted
37% · 69 games57% · 31 game
Night StalkerBb3px
Night Stalker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonJANTER
49% · 111 games53% · 160 games
TinyOneJey
Tiny
52% · 43 games
OraclePanto
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 52%
Series resultHULIGANI 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3