DreamLeague Season 23 - Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Night Pulse
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 4 games
Crystal Maiden
JANTER · 3 games
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 2 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
JANTER · 2 games
Magnusoften banned
Corrupted · 2 games
Techies
JANTER · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Corrupted · 1 game
Nemiga Gaming
Lionsignature
aik · 14 games
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 10 games
Earthshakersignature
Hellscream · 9 games
Pugna
queezy · 9 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
forcemajor · 8 games
Pucksignature
nicky`cool · 8 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 7 games
Dazzlesignature
zenica · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
383 picks · 355 bans
Centaur Warrunner
360 picks · 571 bans
Mars
349 picks · 525 bans
Vengeful Spirit
346 picks · 336 bans
Techies
342 picks · 269 bans
Batrider
325 picks · 657 bans
Hoodwink
314 picks · 190 bans
Tiny
301 picks · 311 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:21
Night Pulse 53%Nemiga Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 35:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenKami
Pangoliernicky`cool
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
Windrangerv1olent-
InvokerWorick
TinyMikSa`
Crystal MaidenJANTER
Rubickqueezy
58% · 118 games
Miranaaik
Game 2prediction missed28:39
Night Pulse 53%Nemiga Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 47:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautKami
Terrorbladev1olent-
TinyWorick
Timbersawnicky`cool
MagnusCorrupted
Hoodwinkqueezy
EnchantressJANTER
TidehunterMikSa`
54% · 174 games
Pugnaaik
Game 3prediction correct32:14
Night Pulse 52%Nemiga Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 27:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaKami
Templar Assassinv1olent-
PuckWorick
DoomMikSa`
TidehunterCorrupted
Pangoliernicky`cool
Crystal MaidenJANTER
Rubickqueezy
55% · 199 games
Batrideraik
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 54%
Series resultNight Pulse 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3