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European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
Night Pulsewin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nightshadeloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Night Pulse

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
JANTER · 2 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
JANTER · 1 game
0%

Nightshade

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
Kyzko · 5 games
40%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
ChodΣX · 4 games
25%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ChodΣX · 3 games
67%
Lion
Lion
Kyzko · 3 games
33%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kyzko · 3 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ChodΣX · 2 games
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
ani-san · 2 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Kyzko · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
257 picks · 336 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
246 picks · 115 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
218 picks · 470 bans
60%
Phoenix
Phoenix
214 picks · 298 bans
46%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
211 picks · 219 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
199 picks · 374 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
193 picks · 287 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
191 picks · 438 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% Night Pulse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Nightshade
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:33
Night Pulse 49%Nightshade 51%
The model gave 51% on Nightshade — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 49:50.
Game 2prediction correct16:35
Night Pulse 49%Nightshade 51%
The model gave 51% on Nightshade — the game was taken by Nightshade in 27:35.
Game 3prediction missed49:42
Night Pulse 49%Nightshade 51%
The model gave 51% on Nightshade — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 50:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteNightshade · 51%
Series resultNight Pulse 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3