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Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
Night Pulseloss 0:2
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 0:2
One Movewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Night Pulse

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 15 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 14 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 12 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
JANTER · 11 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Hduo · 11 games
64%
Medusa
Medusasignature
V-Tune · 11 games
73%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Hduo · 11 games
64%

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 12 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 10 games
10%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Wein · 10 games
30%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Rein · 9 games
33%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
xn丶e · 9 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SSS · 9 games
33%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
SSS · 9 games
22%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
389 picks · 716 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
330 picks · 631 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
327 picks · 269 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
323 picks · 219 bans
48%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
321 picks · 373 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
320 picks · 469 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
302 picks · 350 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
299 picks · 537 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 38%
Hero pool strength62% Night Pulse
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total74% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:39
Night Pulse 64%One Move 36%
The model gave 64% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by One Move in 35:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenV-Tune
50% · 150 games45% · 37 games
Sand KingSSS
Sand King
Tiny
TinyWorick
48% · 244 games55% · 153 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Magnus
MagnusKami
50% · 80 games52% · 252 games
GyrocopterWoE
Gyrocopter
Snapfire
SnapfireJANTER
42% · 116 games54% · 190 games
ClockwerkRein
Clockwerk
Jakiro
JakiroHduo
49% · 42 games
Game 2prediction missed35:55
Night Pulse 65%One Move 35%
The model gave 65% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by One Move in 47:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomKami
52% · 88 games51% · 92 games
Troll WarlordWoE
Troll Warlord
Ursa
UrsaV-Tune
39% · 55 games50% · 72 games
Monkey KingSquad1x
Monkey King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWorick
48% · 98 games51% · 42 games
Sand KingSSS
Sand King
Jakiro
JakiroJANTER
55% · 23 games58% · 118 games
GrimstrokeRein
Grimstroke
Elder Titan
Elder TitanHduo
46% · 60 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 74%
Series resultOne Move 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2