DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Night Pulsewin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Night Pulse
Hoodwinkoften banned
JANTER · 24 games
Jakiro
Hduo · 21 game
Ursasignature
V-Tune · 19 games
Clockwerk
Hduo · 18 games
Morphlingoften banned
Kami · 18 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 17 games
Medusasignature
V-Tune · 16 games
Phoenixoften banned
Hduo · 16 games
One Move
Ember Spiritsignature
Difference · 18 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 17 games
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 17 games
Doomsignature
SSS · 13 games
Jakiro
Rein · 13 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 12 games
Windrangeroften banned
WoE · 12 games
Clockwerksignature
Rein · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
348 picks · 258 bans
Snapfire
334 picks · 275 bans
Pangolier
327 picks · 455 bans
Rubick
327 picks · 311 bans
Hoodwink
321 picks · 370 bans
Windranger
302 picks · 414 bans
Dragon Knight
297 picks · 463 bans
Enchantress
290 picks · 507 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Night Pulse
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total50% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:29
Night Pulse 49%One Move 51%
The model gave 51% on One Move — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 57:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaV-Tune
WindrangerWoE
Queen of PainWorick
UnderlordSSS
MarsKami
Ember SpiritDifference
Naga SirenHduo
Snapfirenot me
Dark WillowJANTER
OmniknightRein
Game 2prediction missed34:12
Night Pulse 49%One Move 51%
The model gave 51% on One Move — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 31:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingV-Tune
MedusaWoE
Earth SpiritWorick
Sand KingDifference
UnderlordKami
VisageSSS
SnapfireJANTER
Marcinot me
JakiroHduo
EnchantressRein
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 50%
Series resultNight Pulse 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2