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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Night Pulseloss 0:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Secretwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Night Pulse

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Hduo · 18 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 14 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
JANTER · 14 games
36%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Davai · 12 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 12 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 12 games
42%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Worick · 11 games
45%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 10 games
40%

Team Secret

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 11 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
27%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
423 · 10 games
60%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kyzko · 10 games
50%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kyzko · 9 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 9 games
33%
Invoker
Invokersignature
xn丶e · 8 games
63%
Chen
Chensignature
Puppey · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
482 picks · 623 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
463 picks · 401 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
459 picks · 579 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
442 picks · 551 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
428 picks · 496 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 784 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
409 picks · 916 bans
59%
Lion
Lion
396 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% Night Pulse
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:22
Night Pulse 66%Team Secret 34%
The model gave 66% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Team Secret in 39:56.
Game 2prediction missed28:35
Night Pulse 66%Team Secret 34%
The model gave 66% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Team Secret in 44:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 66%
Series resultTeam Secret 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2