RES Regional Series: EU #3 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nightshadeloss 0:2series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Dandelionswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nightshade
Elder Titan
Kyzko · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
ChodΣX · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ri4man · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 1 game
Jakiro
jmn- · 1 game
Lion
Kyzko · 1 game
Lone Druid
Otaker · 1 game
Nature's Prophet
Kyzko · 1 game
Dandelions
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
387 picks · 696 bans
Gyrocopter
322 picks · 375 bans
Clockwerk
321 picks · 465 bans
Weaver
320 picks · 611 bans
Hoodwink
316 picks · 246 bans
Rubick
315 picks · 207 bans
Dark Willow
308 picks · 350 bans
Pangolier
294 picks · 540 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Dandelions
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% Dandelions
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:33
Nightshade 24%Dandelions 76%
The model gave 76% on Dandelions — the game was taken by Dandelions in 30:39.
Game 2prediction correct24:36
Nightshade 24%Dandelions 76%
The model gave 76% on Dandelions — the game was taken by Dandelions in 34:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteDandelions · 76%
Series resultDandelions 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2