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BetBoom Dacha Belgrade 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nightshadewin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Just Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nightshade

Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Kyzko · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ri4man · 3 games
0%
Jakiro
Jakiro
jmn- · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
waveformn · 2 games
0%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
ChodΣX · 2 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ri4man · 2 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
waveformn · 2 games
0%
Tusk
Tusk
Kyzko · 2 games
0%

Just Team

Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Krinzhik · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
358 picks · 349 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
356 picks · 406 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
345 picks · 258 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
319 picks · 507 bans
48%
Sven
Sven
295 picks · 305 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
285 picks · 256 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
275 picks · 371 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
269 picks · 459 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% Nightshade
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Nightshade
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:47
Nightshade 54%Just Team 46%
The model gave 54% on Nightshade — the game was taken by Nightshade in 48:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaChodΣX
58% · 8 games40% · 17 games
JakiroKrinzhik
Jakiro
Mirana
Miranawaveformn
62% · 9 games
Game 2prediction missed32:14
Nightshade 50%Just Team 50%
The model gave 50% on Just Team — the game was taken by Nightshade in 26:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slardar
SlardarChodΣX
40% · 11 games56% · 26 games
Treant ProtectorKrinzhik
Treant Protector
Snapfire
Snapfirewaveformn
47% · 15 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNightshade · 55%
Series resultNightshade 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2