Nightshade vs komanda x — prediction EOKL2ОК · Dota 2

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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Nightshadewin 2:0

series probability

38%62%

probability at match start · final 2:0

KXkomanda xloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nightshade

Bristlebackoften banned

ChodΣX · 1 game

100%

Shadow Shaman

Kyzko · 1 game

100%

komanda x

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Vengeful Spirit

216 picks · 271 bans

52%

Grimstroke

180 picks · 172 bans

54%

Pangolier

180 picks · 386 bans

54%

Dark Willow

171 picks · 70 bans

52%

Sven

169 picks · 246 bans

57%

Earthshaker

167 picks · 166 bans

59%

Earth Spirit

149 picks · 241 bans

46%

Phoenix

149 picks · 197 bans

48%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%

Hero pool strength52% Nightshade

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total62% komanda x

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed42:40

Nightshade 42%komanda x 58%

The model gave 58% on komanda x — the game was taken by Nightshade in 51:51.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo