Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nightshadeloss 0:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Rest Farmerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nightshade
Lion
Kyzko · 5 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kyzko · 5 games
Brewmasteroften banned
ChodΣX · 4 games
Bristleback
ChodΣX · 3 games
Dawnbreaker
ChodΣX · 3 games
Kunkkaoften banned
ChodΣX · 3 games
Shadow Shaman
Kyzko · 3 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Kyzko · 3 games
Rest Farmers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
380 picks · 349 bans
Vengeful Spirit
336 picks · 325 bans
Centaur Warrunner
327 picks · 504 bans
Mars
308 picks · 440 bans
Techies
293 picks · 218 bans
Hoodwink
285 picks · 162 bans
Pangolier
279 picks · 420 bans
Batrider
275 picks · 511 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Rest Farmers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Rest Farmers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:46
Nightshade 34%Rest Farmers 66%
The model gave 66% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by Rest Farmers in 1:08:03.
Game 2prediction correct14:34
Nightshade 34%Rest Farmers 66%
The model gave 66% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by Rest Farmers in 30:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteRest Farmers · 66%
Series resultRest Farmers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2