RES Regional Series: EU #3 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nightshadewin 2:0series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rest Farmersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nightshade
Brewmasteroften banned
ChodΣX · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 1 game
Lion
Kyzko · 1 game
Lone Druid
Otaker · 1 game
Nature's Prophet
Kyzko · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
Ri4man · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Ri4man · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
ChodΣX · 1 game
Rest Farmers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
386 picks · 670 bans
Clockwerk
319 picks · 452 bans
Gyrocopter
319 picks · 375 bans
Dark Willow
312 picks · 351 bans
Weaver
311 picks · 592 bans
Rubick
309 picks · 191 bans
Hoodwink
302 picks · 219 bans
Pangolier
290 picks · 534 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 46%
Hero pool strength56% Rest Farmers
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total74% Rest Farmers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Nightshade 26%Rest Farmers 74%
The model gave 74% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by Nightshade.
Game 2prediction missed
Nightshade 26%Rest Farmers 74%
The model gave 74% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by Nightshade.
Model check result
Model favoriteRest Farmers · 74%
Series resultNightshade 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2