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DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nightshadeloss 0:2
series probability
8%92%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nightshade

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
Kyzko · 5 games
40%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
ChodΣX · 4 games
25%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ChodΣX · 3 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ChodΣX · 3 games
33%
Lion
Lion
Kyzko · 3 games
33%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kyzko · 3 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
ani-san · 2 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Kyzko · 2 games
50%

Tundra Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 11 games
73%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 9 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 9 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Sneyking · 9 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Topson · 8 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Aui_2000 · 8 games
38%
Rubick
Rubick
Nine · 7 games
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Nine · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
262 picks · 444 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
241 picks · 380 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
231 picks · 304 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
215 picks · 101 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
212 picks · 201 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
193 picks · 363 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
188 picks · 464 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:28
Nightshade 24%Tundra Esports 76%
The model gave 76% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 42:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenpaw
56% · 225 games54% · 82 games
AlchemistPure~
Alchemist
Kunkka
KunkkaChodΣX
47% · 132 games45% · 146 games
Ember SpiritTopson
Ember Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerRi4man
44% · 135 games53% · 69 games
EnigmaMinD_ContRoL
Enigma
Lion
LionKyzko
55% · 143 games45% · 260 games
RubickWhitemon
Rubick
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionjmn-
50% · 53 games52% · 131 game
Tiny9Class
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct13:42
Nightshade 22%Tundra Esports 78%
The model gave 78% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 28:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingpaw
47% · 271 game56% · 48 games
UrsaPure~
Ursa
Kunkka
KunkkaChodΣX
50% · 79 games54% · 54 games
ChenWhitemon
Chen
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinRi4man
46% · 179 games55% · 86 games
MarsMinD_ContRoL
Mars
Lion
LionKyzko
46% · 137 games51% · 336 games
RubickTopson
Rubick
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernjmn-
40% · 22 games53% · 164 games
Techies9Class
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 92%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2