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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxy SEAwin 2:0
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Motivate.Trust Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy SEA

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 12 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
AlaCrity · 10 games
60%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Poloson · 9 games
78%
Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 9 games
78%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
343 · 9 games
44%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
AlaCrity · 8 games
25%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Ghost · 8 games
63%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
343 · 6 games
50%

Motivate.Trust Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Q · 12 games
75%
Lion
Lionsignature
Q · 11 games
82%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Q · 8 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Fearless · 7 games
86%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
LionaX · 6 games
83%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
LionaX · 6 games
50%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
JaCkky · 6 games
83%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Fearless · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
455 picks · 190 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
373 picks · 207 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
366 picks · 579 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
362 picks · 867 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
336 picks · 303 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
324 picks · 243 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
308 picks · 425 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
293 picks · 401 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 74%
Hero pool strength56% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total62% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:20
Nigma Galaxy SEA 44%Motivate.Trust Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 42:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeinYourdreaM
63% · 56 games50% · 188 games
Wraith KingJaCkky
Wraith King
Puck
PuckAlaCrity
47% · 192 games42% · 182 games
Dragon KnightFearless
Dragon Knight
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMeracle
52% · 90 games52% · 85 games
HoodwinkQ
Hoodwink
Enchantress
EnchantressPoloson
47% · 68 games56% · 72 games
Shadow DemonLionaX
Shadow Demon
Lion
LionJhocam
45% · 121 game
Game 2prediction missed53:33
Nigma Galaxy SEA 46%Motivate.Trust Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 1:44:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tidehunter
TidehunterMeracle
55% · 63 games46% · 94 games
ViperFearless
Viper
Lion
LionJhocam
47% · 95 games53% · 143 games
PangolierQ
Pangolier
Oracle
OraclePoloson
50% · 62 games51% · 108 games
Elder TitanLionaX
Elder Titan
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeinYourdreaM
56% · 42 games44% · 17 games
Arc WardenJaCkky
Arc Warden
Death Prophet
Death ProphetAlaCrity
46% · 100 games
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 62%
Series resultNigma Galaxy SEA 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2