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The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxy SEAloss 0:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Polaris Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy SEA

No games played over 6 months.

Polaris Esports

Tiny
Tiny
Boomy · 18 games
39%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nevermine · 17 games
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nevermine · 15 games
47%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Boomy · 13 games
62%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boomy · 12 games
58%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Natsumi · 10 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Mac · 10 games
70%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Natsumi · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
712 picks · 562 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
499 picks · 657 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
496 picks · 792 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
486 picks · 1022 bans
56%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
369 picks · 425 bans
54%
Zeus
Zeus
329 picks · 397 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
324 picks · 157 bans
48%
Razor
Razor
301 picks · 574 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)22% vs 42%
Hero pool strength54% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head3 – 5
Model total60% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:17
Nigma Galaxy SEA 40%Polaris Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 39:17.
Game 2prediction correct23:10
Nigma Galaxy SEA 40%Polaris Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 35:43.
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 60%
Series resultPolaris Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2