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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxy SEAwin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ragdollloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy SEA

Lion
Lion
Jhocam · 12 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Meracle · 10 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
inYourdreaM · 8 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
AlaCrity · 8 games
63%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
AlaCrity · 8 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Poloson · 7 games
86%
Medusa
Medusasignature
inYourdreaM · 7 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
AlaCrity · 7 games
43%

Ragdoll

Mars
Marsoften banned
Gy · 7 games
57%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ahjit · 7 games
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
vtFαded · 6 games
67%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
vtFαded · 5 games
80%
Lion
Lion
Yif · 5 games
60%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Azrael · 5 games
80%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Azrael · 4 games
75%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Yif · 4 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
414 picks · 297 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
389 picks · 562 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
316 picks · 176 bans
45%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
308 picks · 366 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
306 picks · 738 bans
56%
Kunkka
Kunkka
247 picks · 419 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
236 picks · 322 bans
54%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
234 picks · 323 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 83%
Hero pool strength54% Ragdoll
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:24
Nigma Galaxy SEA 56%Ragdoll 44%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Ragdoll in 50:19.
Game 2prediction missed29:24
Nigma Galaxy SEA 56%Ragdoll 44%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Ragdoll in 49:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 56%
Series resultNigma Galaxy SEA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2