Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxy SEAwin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TMTeam Mysteryloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy SEA
Ogre Magi
343 · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 7 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Ghost · 7 games
Juggernautoften banned
AlaCrity · 5 games
Rikioften banned
Ghost · 5 games
Morphlingoften banned
AlaCrity · 4 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Force · 4 games
Disruptor
343 · 3 games
Team Mystery
Tusk
Ponyo · 4 games
Juggernautoften banned
Ghost · 2 games
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
Ponyo · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mercury · 1 game
Earthshaker
Ohaiyo · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mercury · 1 game
Grimstroke
Ohaiyo · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
407 picks · 942 bans
Void Spirit
372 picks · 533 bans
Death Prophet
347 picks · 699 bans
Mars
328 picks · 545 bans
Grimstroke
314 picks · 312 bans
Tusk
295 picks · 220 bans
Lion
281 picks · 157 bans
Earth Spirit
269 picks · 283 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 60%
Series resultNigma Galaxy SEA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect