Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
11Monkeyzloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Bane
KuroKy · 11 games
Weaveroften banned
KuroKy · 10 games
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
Invokersignature
Miracle- · 8 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
GH · 8 games
Tusk
GH · 8 games
Dark Seeroften banned
rmN- · 7 games
Sand Kingoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 7 games
11Monkeyz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
509 picks · 454 bans
Mars
497 picks · 696 bans
Bane
461 picks · 290 bans
Dragon Knight
436 picks · 536 bans
Sand King
403 picks · 552 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 639 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 625 bans
Grimstroke
360 picks · 321 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% 11Monkeyz
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:6
Nigma Galaxy 76%11Monkeyz 24%
The model gave 76% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 31:52.
Game 2prediction correct
Nigma Galaxy 76%11Monkeyz 24%
The model gave 76% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 76%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2