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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1w Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 22 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
GH · 21 game
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 20 games
45%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 19 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 18 games
50%
Bane
Banesignature
OmaR · 17 games
76%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 15 games
47%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
GH · 15 games
53%

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 32 games
63%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Squad1x · 29 games
59%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 28 games
75%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
kasane · 28 games
61%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 23 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 21 game
76%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
kasane · 20 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
kasane · 20 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
773 picks · 360 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
599 picks · 300 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
569 picks · 463 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
553 picks · 681 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
549 picks · 550 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
520 picks · 312 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
497 picks · 750 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
489 picks · 549 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 58%
Hero pool strength57% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:32
Nigma Galaxy 55%1w Team 45%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 1:15:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanNo!ob
53% · 145 games44% · 67 games
WindrangerMunkushi~
Windranger
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendTA2000
56% · 169 games43% · 399 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSumaiL
51% · 307 games46% · 197 games
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
Centaur Warrunner
Naga Siren
Naga SirenGH
64% · 175 games45% · 207 games
WarlockRein
Warlock
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
54% · 271 game45% · 197 games
Shadow Demonswedenstrong
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct19:11
Nigma Galaxy 55%1w Team 45%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 42:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonTA2000
50% · 370 games49% · 336 games
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
Terrorblade
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSumaiL
49% · 510 games49% · 278 games
MarsSSS
Mars
Underlord
UnderlordNo!ob
52% · 144 games51% · 178 games
Sand KingSquad1x
Sand King
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightGH
63% · 117 games45% · 386 games
Tuskswedenstrong
Tusk
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
47% · 314 games46% · 277 games
WarlockRein
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 61%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2