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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1w Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 32 games
56%
Dazzle
Dazzle
GH · 28 games
50%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
rincyq · 24 games
58%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
No!ob · 23 games
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 22 games
59%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 22 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakiro
GH · 21 game
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
No!ob · 20 games
60%

1w Team

Tusk
Tusksignature
swedenstrong · 33 games
61%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 26 games
38%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 25 games
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 23 games
48%
Tiny
Tiny
Squad1x · 21 game
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
79%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
SSS · 19 games
53%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
мистер мораль · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
542 picks · 443 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
476 picks · 248 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
476 picks · 376 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
475 picks · 531 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
430 picks · 371 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
359 picks · 879 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
358 picks · 808 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
356 picks · 898 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 62%
Hero pool strength52% 1w Team
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total64% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:16
Nigma Galaxy 58%1w Team 42%
The model gave 58% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 51:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidrincyq
56% · 85 games48% · 88 games
Lifestealerv1olent-
Lifestealer
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightNo!ob
53% · 109 games47% · 196 games
Queen of PainSquad1x
Queen of Pain
Underlord
UnderlordDavai
50% · 172 games58% · 126 games
Dawnbreakerмистер мораль
Dawnbreaker
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
42% · 259 games51% · 94 games
SilencerRein
Silencer
Rubick
RubickOmaR
47% · 219 games49% · 340 games
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct29:14
Nigma Galaxy 59%1w Team 41%
The model gave 59% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 35:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
Meeporincyq
66% · 7 games43% · 456 games
Void SpiritSquad1x
Void Spirit
Largo
LargoDavai
55% · 95 games47% · 157 games
Kezv1olent-
Kez
Puck
PuckNo!ob
49% · 465 games46% · 260 games
Bristlebackмистер мораль
Bristleback
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
50% · 257 games54% · 225 games
Rubickswedenstrong
Rubick
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
52% · 356 games51% · 82 games
VenomancerRein
Venomancer
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 64%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2