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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 24 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 22 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 21 game
33%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
SumaiL · 19 games
53%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
GH · 18 games
22%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 16 games
44%
Pugna
Pugna
GH · 15 games
47%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
TA2000 · 14 games
79%

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 29 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 29 games
52%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 26 games
54%
Mars
Marssignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 25 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 24 games
67%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 23 games
61%
Warlock
Warlock
Kaori · 21 game
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 20 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
608 picks · 946 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
537 picks · 437 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
487 picks · 640 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
479 picks · 638 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
444 picks · 962 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
400 picks · 658 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
395 picks · 540 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
389 picks · 238 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 69%
Hero pool strength56% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total84% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:35
Nigma Galaxy 29%Aurora Gaming 71%
The model gave 71% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 35:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterrincyq
50% · 361 game47% · 184 games
SvenNightfall
Sven
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNo!ob
53% · 334 games47% · 247 games
TimbersawWs
Timbersaw
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSumaiL
49% · 208 games58% · 366 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanOmaR
49% · 310 games44% · 246 games
Dark WillowMira
Dark Willow
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightGH
52% · 131 game51% · 301 game
Shadow DemonKaori
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed35:28
Nigma Galaxy 29%Aurora Gaming 71%
The model gave 71% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 46:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSumaiL
49% · 143 games52% · 23 games
ClinkzNightfall
Clinkz
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinrincyq
47% · 189 games55% · 247 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Bristleback
BristlebackNo!ob
53% · 207 games42% · 207 games
MarsWs
Mars
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightGH
64% · 86 games41% · 127 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinOmaR
62% · 57 games43% · 78 games
Skywrath MageMira
Skywrath Mage
Game 3prediction correct14:35
Nigma Galaxy 28%Aurora Gaming 72%
The model gave 72% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 35:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenrincyq
46% · 166 games53% · 125 games
Shadow FiendNightfall
Shadow Fiend
Mars
MarsNo!ob
46% · 220 games51% · 257 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Muerta
MuertaSumaiL
45% · 194 games53% · 120 games
Primal BeastWs
Primal Beast
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerOmaR
58% · 50 games43% · 151 game
Dark WillowMira
Dark Willow
Dazzle
DazzleGH
48% · 140 games59% · 117 games
Ancient ApparitionKaori
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 84%
Series resultAurora Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3