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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:1
AVULUSloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 22 games
86%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OmaR · 17 games
53%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 17 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
GH · 16 games
63%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 13 games
85%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Fbz · 11 games
55%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
GH · 11 games
36%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Miracle- · 10 games
50%

AVULUS

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 21 game
76%
Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 20 games
80%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 20 games
70%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 20 games
65%
Tusk
Tusksignature
SoNNeikO · 18 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 17 games
76%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Ekki · 17 games
59%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 16 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
359 picks · 484 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
357 picks · 330 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
323 picks · 459 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
306 picks · 593 bans
51%
Luna
Luna
288 picks · 344 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
284 picks · 153 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
256 picks · 427 bans
48%
Batrider
Batrider
246 picks · 236 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 65%
Hero pool strength54% AVULUS
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:27
Nigma Galaxy 45%AVULUS 55%
The model gave 55% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 45:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaMiracle-
50% · 294 games54% · 132 games
AlchemistSmiling Knight
Alchemist
Invoker
InvokerSumaiL
46% · 160 games51% · 123 games
Earth SpiritStormstormer
Earth Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNo!ob
49% · 174 games50% · 267 games
BatriderEkki
Batrider
Disruptor
DisruptorGH
56% · 136 games52% · 309 games
PangolierXibbe
Pangolier
Muerta
MuertaOmaR
44% · 103 games45% · 36 games
OracleSoNNeikO
Oracle
Game 2prediction missed29:16
Nigma Galaxy 46%AVULUS 54%
The model gave 54% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 46:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMiracle-
53% · 130 games51% · 219 games
Dragon KnightSmiling Knight
Dragon Knight
Sniper
SniperSumaiL
56% · 146 games45% · 289 games
PangolierStormstormer
Pangolier
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNo!ob
56% · 378 games47% · 62 games
UnderlordXibbe
Underlord
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterOmaR
48% · 34 games44% · 158 games
SnapfireEkki
Snapfire
Dark Willow
Dark WillowGH
49% · 239 games49% · 199 games
EnchantressSoNNeikO
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2