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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
AVULUSwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 36 games
72%
Tusk
Tusk
OmaR · 34 games
59%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
GH · 29 games
59%
Magnus
Magnussignature
SumaiL · 26 games
69%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 23 games
39%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 23 games
57%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 23 games
57%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 22 games
55%

AVULUS

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 50 games
42%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 25 games
44%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
dEsire · 24 games
58%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Xibbe · 20 games
30%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 20 games
70%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 18 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Mo13ei · 18 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 16 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
528 picks · 563 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
460 picks · 233 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
439 picks · 486 bans
55%
Jakiro
Jakiro
409 picks · 323 bans
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
384 picks · 824 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
377 picks · 363 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
361 picks · 530 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 536 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 33%
Hero pool strength59% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total67% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed3:34
Nigma Galaxy 60%AVULUS 40%
The model gave 60% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by AVULUS in 34:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaGhost
46% · 181 game55% · 135 games
Templar AssassinSmiling Knight
Templar Assassin
Tinker
TinkerSumaiL
47% · 93 games49% · 157 games
KunkkaWorick
Kunkka
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNo!ob
52% · 347 games45% · 336 games
PangolierXibbe
Pangolier
Dark Willow
Dark WillowGH
50% · 234 games60% · 116 games
ChenFly
Chen
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterOmaR
45% · 62 games51% · 173 games
RingmasterdEsire
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed20:26
Nigma Galaxy 59%AVULUS 41%
The model gave 59% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by AVULUS in 55:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendGhost
49% · 153 games44% · 239 games
TerrorbladeSmiling Knight
Terrorblade
Monkey King
Monkey KingSumaiL
55% · 262 games47% · 234 games
PuckWorick
Puck
Bristleback
BristlebackNo!ob
51% · 344 games46% · 322 games
BeastmasterXibbe
Beastmaster
Earthshaker
EarthshakerOmaR
47% · 199 games48% · 171 game
Shadow ShamandEsire
Shadow Shaman
Elder Titan
Elder TitanGH
54% · 139 games58% · 131 game
Naga SirenFly
Naga Siren
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 67%
Series resultAVULUS 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2