WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
beastcoastloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Puckoften banned
Miracle- · 15 games
Dragon Knightsignature
MinD_ContRoL · 13 games
Marssignature
MinD_ContRoL · 13 games
Phoenixsignature
GH · 13 games
Lionsignature
KuroKy · 11 games
Dark Willowsignature
GH · 10 games
Iooften banned
GH · 10 games
Elder Titansignature
GH · 9 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
406 picks · 641 bans
Lion
405 picks · 224 bans
Puck
398 picks · 993 bans
Grimstroke
370 picks · 356 bans
Snapfire
358 picks · 198 bans
Tiny
310 picks · 222 bans
Tusk
285 picks · 216 bans
Centaur Warrunner
277 picks · 378 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 44%
Hero pool strength58% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:23
Nigma Galaxy 54%beastcoast 46%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 29:17.
Game 2prediction correct49:12
Nigma Galaxy 54%beastcoast 46%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 27:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 54%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2