PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
beastcoastloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Clockwerksignature
GH · 18 games
Dark Willow
GH · 15 games
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 13 games
Phoenixsignature
GH · 12 games
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 11 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Fbz · 9 games
Weaversignature
Miracle- · 9 games
Morphlingsignature
Ghost · 8 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
340 picks · 285 bans
Jakiro
339 picks · 253 bans
Pangolier
324 picks · 437 bans
Enchantress
311 picks · 518 bans
Rubick
302 picks · 294 bans
Windranger
301 picks · 431 bans
Dragon Knight
296 picks · 478 bans
Hoodwink
293 picks · 343 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 33%
Hero pool strength59% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:32
Nigma Galaxy 75%beastcoast 25%
The model gave 75% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by beastcoast in 41:53.
Game 2prediction correct34:18
Nigma Galaxy 75%beastcoast 25%
The model gave 75% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 25:47.
Game 3prediction correct25:16
Nigma Galaxy 75%beastcoast 25%
The model gave 75% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 29:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 75%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3