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ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:1
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 25 games
76%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 18 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
No!ob · 16 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
OmaR · 14 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenix
GH · 14 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Miracle- · 14 games
57%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 14 games
86%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Miracle- · 13 games
62%

BETBOOM TEAM

Batrider
Batridersignature
Save- · 27 games
63%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Kataomi · 27 games
48%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 20 games
70%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Save- · 20 games
80%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Save- · 19 games
63%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 18 games
61%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 17 games
76%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gpK~ · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
487 picks · 674 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
418 picks · 493 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
363 picks · 534 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
355 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
334 picks · 445 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
310 picks · 516 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
307 picks · 333 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
307 picks · 595 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct53:36
Nigma Galaxy 47%BETBOOM TEAM 53%
The model gave 53% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 1:00:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMiracle-
57% · 169 games42% · 404 games
MorphlingPure~
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierSumaiL
51% · 442 games47% · 144 games
Queen of Painkiyotaka
Queen of Pain
Enigma
EnigmaNo!ob
56% · 139 games57% · 172 games
MagnusMieRo
Magnus
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonGH
52% · 366 games43% · 313 games
Crystal MaidenKataomi
Crystal Maiden
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
47% · 358 games49% · 441 game
BatriderSave-
Batrider
Game 2prediction missed40:26
Nigma Galaxy 47%BETBOOM TEAM 53%
The model gave 53% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 42:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMiracle-
60% · 58 games50% · 227 games
TinyPure~
Tiny
Lina
LinaSumaiL
49% · 144 games47% · 175 games
TimbersawMieRo
Timbersaw
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNo!ob
51% · 207 games41% · 169 games
Morphlingkiyotaka
Morphling
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiGH
48% · 62 games49% · 77 games
GrimstrokeSave-
Grimstroke
Lion
LionOmaR
54% · 296 games50% · 119 games
PugnaKataomi
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2