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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Brameloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Puck
Puckoften banned
w33 · 9 games
44%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 8 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Miracle- · 8 games
63%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 7 games
57%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 7 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
w33 · 6 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
KuroKy · 6 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Miracle- · 5 games
40%

Brame

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 13 games
69%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
SsaSpartan · 13 games
38%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 11 games
36%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
SkyLark · 10 games
70%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 9 games
78%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 9 games
44%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Focus · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
419 picks · 947 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
384 picks · 545 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
344 picks · 713 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
326 picks · 559 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
313 picks · 303 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
296 picks · 214 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
277 picks · 281 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
272 picks · 150 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:36
Nigma Galaxy 38%Brame 62%
The model gave 62% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 43:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SveniLTW
56% · 5 games58% · 45 games
Phantom AssassinFocus
Phantom Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMiracle-
42% · 71 game53% · 96 games
PuckW1sh-
Puck
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMinD_ContRoL
52% · 51 game38% · 17 games
UnderlordSkyLark
Underlord
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageGH
52% · 11 games52% · 64 games
PhoenixCTOMAHEH1
Phoenix
Oracle
OracleKuroKy
49% · 128 games52% · 44 games
Elder TitanSsaSpartan
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed22:7
Nigma Galaxy 41%Brame 59%
The model gave 59% on Brame — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 23:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMiracle-
50% · 83 games45% · 37 games
Phantom AssassinFocus
Phantom Assassin
Juggernaut
JuggernautiLTW
62% · 119 games44% · 101 game
PuckW1sh-
Puck
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMinD_ContRoL
49% · 56 games55% · 23 games
EnigmaSkyLark
Enigma
Warlock
WarlockKuroKy
55% · 12 games54% · 83 games
Earth SpiritCTOMAHEH1
Earth Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowGH
45% · 45 games44% · 71 game
GrimstrokeSsaSpartan
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction missed23:4
Nigma Galaxy 38%Brame 62%
The model gave 62% on Brame — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 23:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracMiracle-
56% · 34 games59% · 11 games
Templar AssassinW1sh-
Templar Assassin
Juggernaut
JuggernautiLTW
46% · 86 games58% · 52 games
MorphlingFocus
Morphling
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMinD_ContRoL
57% · 37 games52% · 58 games
TidehunterSkyLark
Tidehunter
Warlock
WarlockKuroKy
44% · 8 games51% · 85 games
PhoenixCTOMAHEH1
Phoenix
Rubick
RubickGH
40% · 85 games47% · 44 games
AbaddonSsaSpartan
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 71%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3